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Apparent overconfidence
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2011)
It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. ...
Attitude polarization: theory and evidence
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2014)
Numerous experiments have demonstrated the possibility of attitude polarization.For instance, Lord, Ross & Leper (1979) found that death penalty advocates becamemore convinced of the deterrent e§ect of the death penalty ...
The problem of prevention
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2011)
Many disasters are foreshadowed by insu¢ cient preventive care. In this paper, we argue that there is a true problem of prevention , in that insu¢ cient care is often the result of rational calculations on the part of ...
Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2013)
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, ...
When do populations polarize? An explanation
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2018)
Numerous experiments demonstrate attitude polarization. For instance, Lord, Ross & Lepper presented subjects with the same mixed evidence on the deterrent effect of the death penalty. Both believers and skeptics of its ...