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Apparent overconfidence
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2011)
It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. ...
Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments
(Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía, 2013)
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, ...